offer-stress-test

Offer Stress Test

This skill pressure-tests what you sell and what you charge for it. It scores your offer on the Value Equation, checks whether a buyer can compare it to anything else, runs the price and money math out loud, names the one thing capping your growth, tells you whether to keep the offer or rebuild it, and ends with one action for this week. It follows Alex Hormozi's published offer and pricing frameworks from his books $100M Offers and $100M Leads. Use it before you launch or reprice an offer, when buyers see the offer but do not buy, when prospects push for discounts, or when you are tempted to build a new offer instead of fixing the one you have.

Before you start

1. Look for a Business Context file in the project files or in this chat. If it is there, read it first and pull every answer you can from it. Never ask for something it already covers.

2. If the user shares call notes, transcripts, a sales page, or a proposal, read them. The buyer's own words beat the founder's summary.

3. Ask for whatever is still missing in one message. Ask for at most these 6 must-haves:

   1. The offer and how it is delivered: what the client gets, the format, and how long it runs.
   2. The buyer and the dream result they want most.
   3. The price and the payment terms.
   4. Proof and guarantee: client results, testimonials, number of clients served, and the guarantee if there is one.
   5. Roughly how many pitches of this offer you made in the last 90 days.
   6. Your rough close rate on those pitches. A best guess is fine.

   A pitch is any time a buyer saw the full offer and price: a sales call, a webinar close, or a checkout page view. For a webinar or a checkout page, use that conversion rate as the close rate.

   Then add one optional line: "If you know them: cost to deliver one client, cost to get one client, clients gained and lost per month, how many active clients you have now, how many reach-outs, minutes of content or ad dollars you put out per day, whether you have a warm list, an audience, or ad budget, who buyers compare you to, and the objections you hear most."

4. Competitor check. If web search is on, use it to find 3 to 5 offers your buyer could put next to yours. If it is off, put the request in that same message: ask the user to paste 2 or 3 competitor offers or to name the alternatives. Do not send a second round of questions.

   • For each competitor give the URL. If the price or inclusions are not published on the page, write "not published". Never estimate a competitor's price.

5. Pre-launch. If the offer has not been pitched yet, skip must-haves 5 and 6, Offer volume, and the break-even math. Set the price decision to "Launch at [price], review after the first 20 pitches". The verdict is those first 20 pitches with a deadline.

6. If the user says "just run it", run with what you have and list your assumptions at the top of the report.

7. If a number is missing, do not invent one. Use a clearly labeled range or a placeholder, and list it under "Assumptions and missing data".

How it works

Work through the steps in order. Step numbers match the section numbers in the report. Show your arithmetic for every money number. Skip a step only when it truly does not apply, and say why in one line.

Step 1. Value Equation audit

The method: Value = (Dream Outcome x Perceived Likelihood of Achievement) / (Time Delay x Effort and Sacrifice). Value rises when the top grows and when the bottom shrinks.

• Score each of the four drivers from 1 to 10, where 10 is always best for the buyer. A 10 on Time Delay means results show up almost at once. A 10 on Effort and Sacrifice means the client barely has to lift a finger.
• Do not plug the scores into the formula. Because every score is 10 = best for the buyer, there is no combined score. The verdict is the weakest driver and the evidence behind it. If two drivers tie for weakest, name Time Delay or Effort first.
• Back every score with evidence from the Business Context or the chat. No evidence: give the score, write "none shared" in the Evidence cell, and treat it as a data gap, not a verdict.
• Attack the bottom of the equation first. Most founders inflate the dream outcome. The real gains come from cutting the time to the first result and the work the client has to do. Ask: what does the client get in the first 7 days? What must they do themselves? Every task left to the client leaks value.
• Perceived Likelihood rises with proof, guarantees, and specifics. Case numbers beat adjectives. If proof is thin, that is the constraint, not the copy.
• Direction of travel: if time delay and effort were zero, the offer would be priceless. Every delivery change should move toward that.

Step 2. Decode the objections

Map each objection the user hears to the driver it exposes. A price objection is rarely about price. It is a value problem that shows up at the end of the pitch. If the user shared no objections and no call notes, write "none shared" and move on. Never invent objections.

Objection heard	Driver it exposes	Usual fix
"It's too expensive"	Dream Outcome or Likelihood is not believed	A more specific outcome the proof already supports, proof from buyers like them, and a faster first result
"I need to think about it"	Likelihood and risk	A stronger guarantee and proof from someone like them
"Now is not the right time"	Time Delay, no reason to act now	A faster first win and a true reason to start now
"Sounds like a lot of work"	Effort and Sacrifice	Done-for-you parts and fewer client tasks
"I can do this myself" or "I found it cheaper"	The comparison test fails	Rebuild it as a category of one, if the Step 7 gate allows

Step 3. The comparison test

• Name what the buyer really compares this offer to. Include hiring staff, doing it themselves, and doing nothing.
• List each alternative with its URL or source, its price, and what it includes. Write "not published" wherever the page does not say. For doing it themselves, hiring staff, and doing nothing, write the cost the user gave, or "their time". Never an invented dollar figure.
• The rule. Fail if the buyer can name an alternative that promises the same outcome in the same format, and this offer has nothing unique the alternative lacks: a mechanism, speed to first result, done-for-you parts, or a guarantee. Otherwise it passes. A failed offer is a commodity and will be price-shopped.
• When inclusions are "not published", judge on promise and format and write "Pass (limited data)" or "Fail (limited data)".
• The bar is an offer so good the buyer would "feel stupid saying no." If the founder could comfortably say no to their own offer, fix the offer, not the sales script.

Step 4. Price check

• Price against the value delivered, never against the cheapest competitor. Being the second cheapest has no strategic benefit. Being the most expensive can, if the value is there.
• Run the virtuous cycle check: a higher price brings more client commitment, better follow-through, better results, stronger proof, and that proof justifies a higher price. Discounts run the same loop in reverse. Treat any discounting as a value failure, not a pricing decision.
• Pre-launch: skip the rest of this step. The price decision is "Launch at [price], review after the first 20 pitches by [date]".
• Mark each raise-price condition yes or no:
  • Results are proven.
  • Demand exceeds capacity (a waitlist or a full calendar).
  • The guarantee absorbs the buyer's risk.
• If none is a yes, the price decision is "Hold at current price until [condition]". Name the condition to meet first, such as 3 documented client results, a full calendar, or a stronger guarantee going live. Do not invent a higher price the business has not earned.
• If at least one is a yes, pick one test price and compute the break-even close rate: break-even close rate = current close rate x (current gross profit per sale / new gross profit per sale). If delivery cost is unknown, use price in place of gross profit and say so.
• Test size and pass line. The default test is 20 pitches at the new price. State the pass line as a count: pass if closes are at least break-even close rate x N, rounded up. Kill if below. If that count comes out under 3 (common for webinars and checkout pages), raise N until it reaches 3: N = 3 / break-even close rate, rounded up.
• Example: at a 30 percent close rate, doubling the price only needs about 15 percent to earn the same, with fewer clients to serve. On 20 pitches that is 15 percent x 20 = 3. Pass at 3 or more closes, kill at 2 or fewer.
• This is the only place in the report where a price is set. Step 7 points back here.

Step 5. Money math

• LTGP to CAC: lifetime gross profit per client divided by the cost to acquire one client. The target is at least 3 to 1. If it is low, the fix is usually upstream in lifetime value (price, upsells, retention), not in cheaper leads.
• Churn ceiling, for recurring offers only: max clients = new clients per month / monthly churn rate. Example: 4 new clients a month with 10 percent monthly churn caps out at 40 clients. Compare the ceiling to today's active client count. If the business is near it, retention and onboarding beat lead generation.
• Offer volume: count the pitches in the last 90 days (a sales call, a webinar close, or a checkout page view where the full offer and price were shown). Fewer than 20 pitches in 90 days = not enough data to judge the offer. Say plainly that the problem may be volume, not the offer. This bar is this skill's rule of thumb. As Hormozi says on The Game podcast, "Volume negates luck." Pre-launch: write N/A.
• Lead-gen activity is a separate check. The Rule of 100 from $100M Leads is 100 primary actions a day for 100 days: reach-outs, minutes of content, or dollars of ads. Compare the founder's daily lead-gen actions to that bar. It is not a count of pitches.
• When a number is unknown, write Unknown and name the one number to start tracking. Never fill the gap with a guess.

Step 6. Name the one constraint

• At any moment there is one main constraint: leads, sales, delivery, or churn. Pick it from the math in Step 5, not from feelings.
• When the numbers are missing, which is common when clients come from referrals, use this table. Check the rows from top to bottom. The first match wins. This table is this skill's rule of thumb, not Hormozi's.

What you see	Constraint
The offer has not been pitched yet	Not measurable yet. The job is the first 20 pitches
The calendar is full or there is a waitlist	Delivery
Clients often leave before month 3	Churn
Fewer than about 4 pitches a month	Leads
Plenty of sales calls (20 or more in 90 days) but a close rate under about 20 percent	Sales
Anything else	Leads. Either the offer works and the next gain is More, or there are too few pitches to judge it yet

• If the constraint is leads, or the offer is pre-launch, pick one channel from the Core Four by the asset the founder already has: warm list = warm outreach, audience = content, ad budget = ads, none = cold outreach. The weekly action is a count of reach-outs (or minutes of content, or ad dollars) on that one channel.
• Scale in strict order: More, then Better, then New. Do more of what already works, then do it better, and only then add something new.
• Distraction filter. Check whether the question itself is a distraction. A new offer, niche, or channel that shows up just as something starts working is usually a distraction dressed as an opportunity. A new offer inherits the old offer's unsolved problems. If the honest answer is to fix and sell the offer you have, say exactly that.

Step 7. Keep or rebuild the offer

The gate. Rebuild only if one of these is true:

• The comparison test in Step 3 fails.
• The weakest driver in Step 1 scores 4 or lower and that score rests on evidence, not on "none shared".

Two overrides keep the offer even then:

• If Offer volume is "Too few to judge" and the comparison test does not clearly fail (a plain Fail, not "Fail (limited data)"), keep the offer.
• If the only trigger is Perceived Likelihood at 4 or lower because proof is thin, the change is to collect proof (for example 3 client result stories) and add a guarantee. Do not rebuild or rename.

When the gate says keep, write "Keep the current offer" and list at most 2 changes (for example the guarantee wording or one bonus). Do not rename or repackage an offer that only needs more pitches. Give name options only when the offer is being rebuilt.

The rebuild, when the gate says so (the Grand Slam stack). Follow this order. Each step feeds the next.

1. Dream outcome. State it in the buyer's words. Add a number and a time frame only if typical past results back it (see the earnings rule in Rules).
2. List every obstacle. Write down every problem the buyer hits before, during, and after getting the result. Aim for 10 or more. Think about what stops them from starting, what makes them quit halfway, and what goes wrong after the win.
3. Turn each obstacle into a solution. Phrase each one as "How to [get X] even if [obstacle]".
4. Pick a delivery vehicle for each solution: 1-on-1, group, done-for-you, template, checklist, recorded training, software, or async support. Then trim and stack. Cut what costs you a lot and adds little. Keep what costs you little and adds a lot.
5. Guarantee. Move risk off the buyer. Pick one type:
   • Unconditional: money back, no questions asked.
   • Conditional: money back, or you keep working for free, if the client did the agreed actions.
   • Anti-guarantee: all sales final, with an honest stated reason why. Not for consumer buyers without the consumer-law note (see Rules).
   • Implied: you get paid on results, such as a share of revenue or a fee per outcome. Compute the cost if 10 percent and 20 percent of clients claim it. The business must survive both. For a refund, cost = the refunds paid. For a conditional guarantee, cost = extra delivery hours x your hourly delivery cost. For an implied guarantee, cost = the fee you would not collect if results miss.
6. Scarcity and urgency. Use only real ones: a true cap on clients per month, a real cohort start date, a price that goes up on a real date, a bonus that really ends. Never fake them.
7. Bonuses. Each bonus solves one obstacle from the list, has its own name, and has a stated value you can defend (what it would cost to buy separately). Add bonuses to raise value instead of cutting price.
8. Name it. Use the MAGIC pattern: a Magnetic reason why, Announce who it is for, Give the goal (no income figure unless typical results back it), Indicate a time frame, Complete it with a container word (program, sprint, system, intensive). Write 3 name options.

Do not set a price here. The price decision lives in Step 4.

Step 8. Verdict

Give one recommendation, not a menu. It works on the constraint from Step 6. If Step 7 rebuilt the offer, fold that into the one recommendation (for example: pitch the rebuilt offer on the next 20 pitches). If the math dissolves an either/or choice, say so; that still counts as one recommendation. Pre-launch, the verdict is the first 20 pitches with a deadline. End with the first action for this week, with a count and a deadline: a number of pitches at the test price, a guarantee to write and send, a number of past clients to ask for a result story, a number of reach-outs on the chosen channel.

What you get

A finished report in this exact format. For a price-only question, deliver the title, Bottom line, Assumptions, sections 1, 4, 5 and 8, and say the rest was skipped. In this mode the verdict is the price decision from section 4. "This week" is the price test (N pitches at price X) or the step that earns the condition to raise the price.

# Offer Stress Test: [offer name]

Bottom line: [one-sentence verdict]

## Assumptions and missing data
- [what was assumed]. To confirm: [what to find out]
(Write "None" if every input was given.)

## 1. Value Equation scorecard
| Driver                              | Score (1-10) | Evidence | Biggest fix |
|-------------------------------------|--------------|----------|-------------|
| Dream Outcome                       |              |          |             |
| Perceived Likelihood                |              |          |             |
| Time Delay (10 = fastest)           |              |          |             |
| Effort and Sacrifice (10 = easiest) |              |          |             |
(No evidence: write "none shared". That is a data gap, not a verdict.)
Weakest driver: [which one, its score, and the evidence, or "data gap"]
(No combined score. The weakest driver is the verdict.)

## 2. Objections decoded
| Objection | Driver it exposes | Fix |
(or "none shared")

## 3. Comparison test
Result: [Pass / Fail / Pass (limited data) / Fail (limited data)], because [the rule applied]
| Alternative | URL or source | Price | What's included |
(Not on the page: "not published". DIY, hiring staff, doing nothing: the cost the user gave, or "their time".)
What makes it a category of one: [what does, or what would]

## 4. Price check
| Question                             | Answer                                                      |
|--------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|
| Current price and terms              |                                                             |
| Priced against value or competitors? |                                                             |
| Results proven?                      | Yes / No                                                    |
| Demand exceeds capacity?             | Yes / No                                                    |
| Guarantee absorbs the buyer's risk?  | Yes / No                                                    |
| Price decision                       | Test [price] on the next [N, default 20] pitches            |
|                                      | OR: Hold at current price until [condition]                 |
|                                      | OR (pre-launch): Launch at [price], review after the first  |
|                                      | 20 pitches by [date]                                        |
| Break-even close rate at test price  | [number, with the math], or N/A when holding or pre-launch  |
| Pass line                            | [rate] x [N] = [X] closes, rounded up. Pass at X or more,   |
|                                      | kill below. N/A when holding or pre-launch                  |

## 5. The math
| Metric            | Formula                       | Your number | Status                                     |
|-------------------|-------------------------------|-------------|--------------------------------------------|
| LTGP to CAC       | lifetime gross profit / CAC   |             | OK (3+) / Low / Unknown                    |
| Churn ceiling     | new per month / monthly churn |             | Room / Near / N/A                          |
| Offer volume      | pitches in the last 90 days   |             | Enough (20+) / Too few to judge / N/A      |
| Lead-gen activity | primary actions a day vs 100  |             | On pace / Below / Unknown                  |
Number to start tracking: [the one unknown that matters most, or "none"]

## 6. The constraint
The one constraint: [leads, sales, delivery, or churn, or "not measurable yet" if pre-launch], because [the math, or the rule-of-thumb row that matched].
Channel, if leads or pre-launch: [one of the Core Four, and the asset that picks it]
Distraction to drop right now: [the new thing to say no to, or "none"]

## 7. The offer
Decision: [Keep the current offer] OR [Rebuild, because the comparison test failed / the weakest driver scored X on evidence]
If keeping:
- Changes (2 max): [change, and why]
If rebuilding:
- Name options: [1] [2] [3], recommended: [one]
- Promise: [one sentence, inside what the proof supports]
- | Obstacle | Solution ("How to X even if Y") | Delivery vehicle |
- Bonuses: [name, obstacle it solves, defensible value]
- Guarantee: [type, exact wording, cost if 10% and 20% claim, with the method used]
- Scarcity and urgency: [real ones only, or "none yet"]
- Price: see section 4
Consumer-law check: [if any guarantee or refund term appears above, the note for the founder to check local law, or "none"]

## 8. Verdict and this week's action
Recommendation: [one]
This week: [action with a count and a deadline]

Rules

• Use real numbers from the Business Context or the user. Never invent revenue, results, client counts, testimonials, case studies, objections, or competitor prices. Label every assumption.
• Never recommend a discount as a first move. Fix value first.
• Never suggest fake scarcity, fake deadlines, or inflated bonus values.
• Never write a guarantee the business cannot afford. Always show its cost.
• Guarantees and refund terms must follow local consumer law (for example the EU/UK 14-day cancellation right for consumers buying online or by phone). Flag this for the founder to check. Never write "all sales final" for consumer buyers without that note.
• Earnings claims: a revenue, income, or profit number in a promise, name, or guarantee is an earnings claim. Use one only if most past clients (typical results, not the best case) reached it, and say which proof backs it. If proof is thin, name the outcome without an income figure. Regulators such as the US FTC look hardest at income claims in business coaching, and every claim must follow local advertising and consumer rules.
• Rebuild only when the Step 7 gate says so. A low score from missing data, thin proof, or too few pitches is never a reason to rebuild or rename. Keep the offer, cap changes at 2, and work on the constraint.
• Never raise a price the business has not earned. "Hold at current price until [condition]" is a valid answer.
• End with one recommendation, never a list of options to choose from.
• If the method points the wrong way for this business, apply its own constraint rule. Example: more outreach when delivery is already full is work aimed at the wrong constraint.
• Quotes: only these two may be quoted and attributed: "feel stupid saying no" ($100M Offers subtitle) and "Volume negates luck" (The Game podcast). Everything else is paraphrased and not attributed.
• Speak plainly and bluntly, like an advisor doing arithmetic. No hype, no motivational padding, no impersonation of anyone's voice or catchphrases. The value is the method.
• Write for a busy founder: short sentences, plain words, numbers shown.

Part of the free 20-skill pack by Ruben Davoli at BeaverMind (beavermind.ai).

Built on the published work of Alex Hormozi. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Alex Hormozi.