wind-alice/dip_buy_decision_skill

Dip Buy Decision Skill

Data Dependencies & Pre-Execution Checks

It is recommended to use the WIND wind-mcp-skill to obtain underlying data. Before execution, check if wind-mcp-skill is already available locally; if not, prompt the user to install it:

# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

# Gitee Mirror (Domestic)
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Skill Positioning

This skill is used to determine: "Is this decline an opportunity, or the start of trouble?" The output does not blindly encourage bottom-fishing but helps users distinguish between normal pullbacks within a trend, event-driven mispricing, structural weakening, and pure bear market rallies. It translates potential buying actions into a bounded trial-and-error plan.

Feature Overview

The core function of this skill is to judge whether a pullback is worth buying into, and if so, how to approach it.

It emphasizes first assessing the nature of the pullback, then deciding whether to trial, how to build a position in stages, and when to abandon the idea. This helps users avoid misjudging every decline as an opportunity.

Use Cases

• After a strong stock pulls back, the user wants to determine if a dip-buying window has opened.
• After earnings reports, announcements, or market volatility, the stock price drops rapidly, requiring a distinction between mispricing and structural breakdown.
• Users want to position themselves during a pullback but avoid catching a falling knife.
• Teams need to manage stocks that are "worth buying" separately from those that are "only for observation."

Working Principles

1. Before buying a dip, you must first assess the nature of the pullback, not decide whether to buy first.
2. Only if the trend is unbroken, the thesis intact, and the environment unchanged is it worth discussing a dip buy.
3. Dip buying is better suited for phased trial entries, not a single heavy-handed judgment.
4. Abandonment criteria must be clearly defined in advance to avoid averaging down as the price falls.
5. The document presents only the judgment basis and plan, not the internal implementation process.

Execution Flow

Step 1: Confirm the Pullback Background & Decline Type

First, determine the category of this decline:

• Technical pullback after a strong uptrend
• Emotional decline after news or earnings
• Passive drag from broad market systemic volatility
• Structural trend destruction as the thesis weakens

Only by first identifying the decline type can subsequent dip buying be meaningful.

Step 2: Check Whether the Original Uptrend Thesis Still Holds

The prerequisite for buying a dip is "expensive in a pullback, not expensive after it's broken":

• Is the core catalyst still present?
• Is the sector or theme still active?
• Is the market's disagreement with the original thesis just a short-term amplification?
• Are there new negative variables that change the original judgment?

Step 3: Identify Buying Zones vs. Observation Zones

Clearly define "where is it worth looking":

• Which levels might form meaningful support?
• Which areas are only consolidation pauses and not suitable for impulsive buying?
• How far is the current price from a reasonable observation zone?
• If the price directly breaks through the observation zone, how should the situation be reassessed?

Step 4: Assess Pullback Quality & Signs of Stabilization

Not all deeply oversold conditions are worth buying; the way the decline happens matters more:

• Is volume expanding in a controlled manner or chaotic during the pullback?
• Is the decline an orderly retracement or a one-sided stampede?
• Are there positive clues such as stabilization, shrinking volume, or rebound in buying interest?
• If there is no evidence of stabilization, should we wait for confirmation or abandon immediately?

Step 5: Design Trial Entry Method & Phased Rhythm

Dip buying should emphasize position rhythm:

• What kind of trial risk does the first entry assume?
• Under what confirmations is a second addition allowed?
• If the pullback deepens further, should we pause instead of averaging down?
• Should the total planned position be significantly lower than that for a breakout trade?

Step 6: Set Abandonment Criteria & Failure Boundaries

The most important aspect of a dip buying decision is not the entry point, but the exit/stop point:

• At which level or upon which information should the dip buy be abandoned?
• Does a series of weak bounces indicate the buying thesis is invalid?
• If the environment simultaneously deteriorates, should we terminate early?
• When should we conclude this is not a pullback but a trend reversal?

Step 7: Form the Dip Buy Decision Draft

The final output should help the user know "whether to buy, where to buy, how much first, and under what conditions to stop buying." The document retains the pullback nature judgment, buying zones, rhythm, and abandonment criteria.

Output Structure

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Dip Buy Decision Plan ({YYYY-MM-DD})

I. 30-Second Conclusion

• Trading Target: {Stock Name}
• Pullback Nature: {Healthy Retracement / Emotional Mispricing / Trend Breakdown Risk}
• Action Bias: {Trial Allowed / Wait for Stabilization / No Dip Buy}
• Observation Range: {Content}
• Abandonment Criteria: {One sentence}

II. Pullback Assessment

Dimension	Judgment	Impact on Conclusion
Thesis Integrity	{Content}	{Content}
Sector Environment	{Content}	{Content}
Pullback Quality	{Content}	{Content}
Stabilization Evidence	{Content}	{Content}

III. Execution Rhythm

• First Trial Condition: {Content}
• Second Entry Condition: {Content}
• No Further Addition Condition: {Content}

IV. Failure Boundaries

• {Boundary 1}
• {Boundary 2}
• {Boundary 3}

V. Risk Warnings

• {Risk 1}
• {Risk 2}
• {Risk 3}

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Quality Requirements

1. Always judge the nature of the pullback before giving a buying recommendation.
2. Dip-buying recommendations must be accompanied by phased rhythm and abandonment criteria.
3. Differentiate between "pullback completed" and "trend broken."
4. If stabilization evidence is insufficient, explicitly recommend waiting.
5. The output should reduce the probability of catching a falling knife, not beautify left-side trading.