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杀或生(商业计划生成器)

你的商业规划师。将其他Shark Tank Proof技能生成的所有内容(董事会裁决、竞争对手、买方小组、定价、报价、CFO数据、营销、品牌、运营、发布计划及证据账本)汇编成一份商业计划,顶部自动计算裁决结果,从不手写:盈利(数字通过且有真实买家支付、签约或预定)、未证实(理论可行但无真实买家)、尚未(数字未通过)或不完整。模拟小组可否定计划但从不通过计划。添加执行摘要和一页版。当用户说“写我的商业计划”、“整合所有内容”、“是否盈利”、“给我方案”,或在Shark Tank Proof工具包结束时使用。

杀或生(商业计划生成器) 是什么?

这是一款AI代理技能,用于自动生成创业者的完整商业计划。它通过读取多个“Shark Tank Proof”技能的输出文件(包括财务数据、董事会记录、竞争分析、买方面板调查等),运行Python脚本编译出一份包含明确裁决结果的商业计划文档。技能的关键在于裁决完全由数据驱动计算产生,而非手写预测:只有同时满足单位经济为正、年运营盈利、盈亏平衡点在产能内、模拟买家转化率达标(默认25%)、且至少有一条实测需求证据(如付款、押金、签约试点或预订)时,才会给出“盈利”裁决;否则依次降级为“未证实”、“尚未”或“不完整”。该技能支持Claude Code、Cursor、Codex等平台,工作流程包括检查现有数据、生成执行摘要、编译完整计划和一页纸版本。它特别强调诚实性:模拟小组的否定结论会直接导致计划不通过,但通过并不能证明成功;同时强制要求至少一条真实客户承诺才能获得最高裁决,从而避免创业者将未经验证的假设包装成可行方案。

兼容平台✓Claude Code~Codex CLI~Cursor
npx skills add https://github.com/peaknr35/shark-Tank-proof/tree/main/skills/kill-or-build

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文档

杀或生

最后一步。一份创始人能够据此行动的一份文档,仅基于工具包发现的内容构建,并诚实地说明哪些部分是真实的。

首先阅读 ${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/../receipts/rules.md。

此文件夹中的工具:

python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/compile.py" --dir founder

步骤 1:查看现有内容

python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/compile.py" --dir founder --check

打印裁决结果和每项检查。所有检查均为自动计算:

  1. 每个单位在扣除固定成本前能赚钱(founder/numbers.json)。
  2. 第一年实现运营利润。
  3. 如果给出了产能,盈亏平衡点落在产能范围内。
  4. 足够多的模拟买家购买(founder/panel/results.json;默认门槛25%,可通过 --min-buy-rate 更改并说明原因)。低参与率会否决定计划;高参与率不能证明任何事。
  5. 真实需求:在 founder/evidence/claims.csv 中至少有一条 MEASURED 需求声明(付款、押金、已签约试点、预订)。

裁决结果:

裁决含义
不完整尚无数据:建议运行 /burn-test
尚未某项检查未通过;每个失败项均列出其编号
未证实数学上可行,但无真实买家承诺
盈利数学上可行,且至少一位真实买家已承诺

先运行 ledger.py summary 以确保证据部分是最新的:

python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/../receipts/ledger.py" summary

如果没有数据,裁决结果为不完整:建议运行 /burn-test。列出其他缺失的部分及对应填充的技能。不要自行猜测填充缺失部分。

步骤 2:摘要

编写 founder/summary.md,半页,用平实的语言,开头为 残酷的事实: 该计划最可能失败的唯一原因。

  • 用两句话说明业务内容及目标客户。
  • 裁决结果及其背后的三个数字(利润率、盈亏平衡点、第一年)。
  • 什么是真实的:MEASURED 和 THEY SAID IT 声明的数量及其内容。然后说明哪些仍是猜测。
  • 模拟小组和董事会一致同意的内容,以及他们存在分歧的内容,标注为模拟。
  • 最大的风险以及将要采取的措施。
  • 创始人需要什么起步(来自CFO的现金,来自发布的第一次测试)。
  • 本周要做的一件事。

如果裁决是“尚未”,摘要首要说明必须改变什么以及哪些技能负责改变。如果裁决是“未证实”,摘要首要说明本月能够证实或否定该计划的一个现实世界测试。切勿软化未通过的检查,也不要将未证实的计划当作已验证的计划来写。

步骤 3:编译

python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/compile.py" --dir founder

写入 founder/business-plan.md:标题、裁决结果及其检查项、关键数字表、构思,然后是工具包生成的每个部分(摘要、董事会、竞争、小组、定价、报价、数字、营销、品牌、运营、发布),以及尚未完成的内容。

步骤 4:一页纸

为创始人和紧密合作伙伴编写 founder/one-pager.md:问题、客户、报价和价格、数字表、真实证据(以及标记为模拟的小组)、资金用途和请求。数字与计划中的完全一致,逐字对应。

对于外部人员(客户、资助方、贷款人),不要发送计划或此页:请运行 /handshake,它仅基于该受众可能看到的主张构建并检查结果。

规则

  • 裁决来自 compile.py。切勿手写“盈利”,切勿将未通过的数字四舍五入成通过的数字,也切勿称“未证实”为“即将成功”。
  • 明确说明一次:小组和董事会均为模拟,数字为预测;只有真实客户和真实报价才能确认它们。不构成财务、法律或税务建议。
  • 如果用户想要PDF或演示文稿,建议导出计划,但以markdown作为真实来源。

输出

founder/summary.md、founder/business-plan.md、founder/one-pager.md。然后以一行向用户给出裁决结果、残酷的事实以及本周要做的一件现实世界的事情。接下来:为需要说“是”的接收方运行 /handshake。

Individual skills in this repo

This repo contains 5 individual skills — each has its own dedicated page.

burn-test

Your CFO. Builds the unit economics of a business before money is spent: what one unit earns after its direct costs, the real profit margin at the planned volume, the break-even point in units a day, year 1 month by month, the cash needed before it pays for itself, how long the startup spend takes to earn back, and what happens if the price drops, sales come in low or costs rise. Every number traces to an input the user can check. Use when the user says "find the profit margins", "do the numbers", "is this profitable", "break-even", "unit economics", "how much do I need to start", or "run the CFO".

dealbreaker

Builds an offer too good to refuse. Lists every problem the buyer hits on the way to the result they want, turns each into a solution, trims to what is cheap to deliver and valuable to the buyer, and stacks it with honest bonuses, a guarantee the CFO can afford, real urgency and a clear name. Scores it on the value equation (outcome, likelihood, time, effort) and re-tests it on a quick buyer panel. Use when the user says "make my offer better", "why won't people buy", "what should I include", "guarantee", "bonuses", "grand slam offer", or after the panel shows people passing.

handshake

Turns the founder folder into the thing that gets one real person to say yes to the next step: a one-page pilot offer for a customer, an NSF Project Pitch or grant answer for a funder, an investor or lender one-pager, a business case for a boss, or an invite for the people who will use it. Always writes the one-sentence, three-sentence and three-minute versions first. Builds only from claims in the evidence ledger that the audience may see, never from simulated buyers, and checks the finished pitch with the ledger before it goes out. Use when the user says "pitch this", "write a pilot offer", "one-pager", "grant pitch", "NSF pitch", "deck for", "email this customer", "business case", or "what do I send them".

shark-board

Your board of directors, built to disagree with you. Puts a business idea in front of a four-member board, each a sub-agent reading the idea through one published framework: the Offers lens (from Alex Hormozi's $100M Offers), the Monopoly lens (from Peter Thiel's Zero to One), the Product lens (from Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs) and the Evidence lens (from Rob Fitzpatrick's The Mom Test), which scores only what real people have done. Each member scores the idea, names what would kill it and the cheapest test that would prove it, and votes fund, fund with conditions, or pass. Use when the user says "test my business idea", "would this work", "pressure-test this", "what would a board say", "is this a good business", or starts the Shark Tank Proof pack on a new idea.

truth-serum

The consumer panel. Spins up a swarm of buyer sub-agents (default 100, --quick for 20) trained on the user's target customer, each with a different income, age, buying behaviour and objection, shows every one the same pitch, and runs the business through 100 buyer scenarios to see who buys, who doesn't, and why. Tallies the answers into buy rates by segment, the reasons people pass in their own words, what would flip a no, and price answers for litmus. Every result is labelled SIMULATED: it finds objections and the questions to ask real buyers, and never counts as demand. Use when the user says "would people buy this", "test it on customers", "run the consumer panel", "simulate buyers", "who is my customer", or "validate demand".

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