kuntal-r-d/my-skills

Macro Regime

When to use

Activate when a user wants the macro read on the Dhaka Stock Exchange: "what's the market regime?", "is this a risk-on environment?", "how do rates and reserves affect risk?", "give me a macro multiplier". This is the Macro Agent (PRD-002 REQ-020). Its risk multiplier is meant to be consumed downstream by signal-synthesizer (to scale the composite score) and risk-manager (to scale position sizing).

What it does

Reads the shared contract's macro block and computes a single risk multiplier in [0.5, 1.2], starting from 1.0 (neutral) and adjusting for each factor:

• Policy rate — tight money (>=9%) lowers the multiplier; accommodative raises it.
• Inflation — above 8% lowers it (real-return erosion, tightening risk).
• FX reserves trend — falling lowers it (import-cover stress, BDT pressure); rising raises it; stable is neutral.
• Politics — crisis/tense lower it; stable raises it.
• Regulatory — floor_prices/tightening lower it; normal is neutral.

The clamped multiplier maps to a regime label and to a normalised score in [-1, +1]. Output is a Thinking Card (see suite README).

How to run

python3 scripts/regime.py --input data.json --pretty
cat data.json | python3 scripts/regime.py

Reads macro (required) and optional mode/ticker/as_of. Returns score (-1..+1), confidence, rating (regime label), key_metrics.risk_multiplier, per-factor drivers, plain-language reasoning, and flags.

Try it now with the shared fixture:

python3 scripts/regime.py --input ../_fixtures/sample_input.json --pretty

Interpreting output

• rating: risk_on (mult >=1.05), neutral (0.85–1.05), cautious (0.70–0.85), risk_off (<0.70).
• key_metrics.risk_multiplier is the value downstream skills multiply into their risk budget — e.g. risk-manager sizes positions at base_risk * risk_multiplier.
• flags: stale_macro appears when one or more macro fields are missing and confidence is capped accordingly — never a silent drop.

Notes

Factor weights, the multiplier→regime mapping, the score mapping, and how downstream skills consume the multiplier are documented in references/REGIME.md. Output is educational analysis only, never financial advice.