tradermonty/scenario-analyzer

Scenario Analyzer

Overview

This skill analyzes medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from a news headline. It invokes two specialized agents in sequence (scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer) and integrates multi-angle analysis with a critical review into a comprehensive report.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• You want to analyze the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline
• You want to construct multiple 18-month scenarios
• You want sector/stock impacts organized into 1st/2nd/3rd-order effects
• You need a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion

Examples:

/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

Prerequisites

• API Keys: None (uses only WebSearch/WebFetch)
• MCP Servers: None
• Dependencies: The scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Skill (orchestrator)                              │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 1: Preparation                                                │
│  ├─ Headline parsing                                                 │
│  ├─ Event type classification                                        │
│  └─ Reference loading                                                │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 2: Agent invocation                                           │
│  ├─ scenario-analyst (primary analysis)                              │
│  └─ strategy-reviewer (second opinion)                               │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 3: Integration & report generation                            │
│  └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md                   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

Step 1.1: Headline Parsing

Parse the headline provided by the user.

1. Headline check

   • Confirm a headline was passed as an argument
   • If not provided, ask the user for input

2. Keyword extraction

   • Key entities (company names, country names, institution names)
   • Numeric data (rates, prices, quantities)
   • Actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.)

Step 1.2: Event Type Classification

Classify the headline into one of the following categories:

Category	Examples
Monetary Policy	FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike, rate cut, QE/QT
Geopolitics	War, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction
Regulation & Policy	Environmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust
Technology	AI, EV, renewables, semiconductors
Commodities	Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products
Corporate & M&A	Acquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, industry restructuring

Step 1.3: Reference Loading

Based on the event type, load the relevant references:

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

Reference contents:

• headline_event_patterns.md: Historical event patterns and market reactions
• sector_sensitivity_matrix.md: Event × sector impact-magnitude matrix
• scenario_playbooks.md: Scenario-construction templates and best practices

---

Phase 2: Agent Invocation

Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst

Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
- prompt: |
    Perform an 18-month scenario analysis for the following headline.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Event Type
    [classification result]

    ## Reference Information
    [summary of the loaded references]

    ## Analysis Requirements
    1. Use WebSearch to collect related news from the past 2 weeks
    2. Construct 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (probabilities sum to 100%)
    3. Analyze 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts by sector
    4. Select 3-5 positive- and 3-5 negative-impact stocks (US market only)
    5. Output everything in English

Expected output:

• List of related news articles
• Details of the 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
• Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• Stock recommendation list

Step 2.2: Invoke strategy-reviewer

Using the scenario-analyst's results, invoke the review agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
- prompt: |
    Review the following scenario analysis.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Analysis Result
    [the full scenario-analyst output]

    ## Review Requirements
    Review from the following angles:
    1. Overlooked sectors/stocks
    2. Validity of the scenario probability allocation
    3. Logical consistency of the impact analysis
    4. Detection of optimism/pessimism bias
    5. Proposal of alternative scenarios
    6. Realism of the timeline

    Output constructive and specific feedback in English.

Expected output:

• Pointing out blind spots
• Opinion on the scenario probabilities
• Pointing out bias
• Proposal of alternative scenarios
• Final recommendations

---

Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation

Step 3.1: Integrate Results

Integrate the output of both agents to produce the final investment judgment.

Integration points:

1. Fill in the blind spots raised in the review
2. Adjust the probability allocation (if needed)
3. Make the final judgment accounting for bias
4. Formulate a concrete action plan

Step 3.2: Generate Report

Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file.

Save location: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

# Headline Scenario Analysis Report

**Analyzed at**: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM
**Target headline**: [the input headline]
**Event type**: [classification category]

---

## 1. Related News Articles
[news list collected by scenario-analyst]

## 2. Scenario Overview (through 18 months out)

### Base Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

### Bull Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

### Bear Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

## 3. Sector / Industry Impact

### 1st-Order Impact (direct)
[impact table]

### 2nd-Order Impact (value chain / related industries)
[impact table]

### 3rd-Order Impact (macro / regulation / technology)
[impact table]

## 4. Stocks Expected to Benefit (3-5 tickers)
[stock table]

## 5. Stocks Expected to Be Hurt (3-5 tickers)
[stock table]

## 6. Second Opinion / Review
[strategy-reviewer output]

## 7. Final Investment Judgment & Implications

### Recommended Actions
[concrete actions informed by the review]

### Risk Factors
[list of key risks]

### Monitoring Points
[indicators / events to follow]

---
**Generated by**: scenario-analyzer skill
**Agents**: scenario-analyst, strategy-reviewer

Step 3.3: Save the Report

1. Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist
2. Save as scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md (e.g., scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md)
3. Notify the user that the save completed
4. Do not save directly to the project root

---

Output

This skill generates the following file:

File	Format	Description
reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md	Markdown	Comprehensive scenario analysis report

Output contents:

• List of related news articles
• 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (with probability allocation)
• Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• Positive/negative stock recommendations
• Second opinion / review
• Final investment judgment & implications

Resources

References

• references/headline_event_patterns.md - Event patterns and market reactions
• references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md - Sector sensitivity matrix
• references/scenario_playbooks.md - Scenario-construction templates

Agents

• scenario-analyst - Primary scenario analysis
• strategy-reviewer - Second opinion / review

---

Important Notes

Language

• All analysis and output are in English
• Stock tickers remain in their standard (English) symbols

Target Market

• Stock selection is US-listed equities only
• ADRs included

Time Horizon

• Scenarios target 18 months
• Described in 3 phases: 0-6 months / 6-12 months / 12-18 months

Probability Allocation

• Base + Bull + Bear = 100%
• Each scenario's probability is described with its rationale

Second Opinion

• Mandatory (always invoke strategy-reviewer)
• Review results are reflected in the final judgment

Output Location (Important)

• Always save under the reports/ directory
• Path: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md
• Example: reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md
• Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist
• Must not save directly to the project root

---

Quality Checklist

Confirm the following before finalizing the report:

• Is the headline parsed correctly?
• Is the event type classification appropriate?
• Do the 3 scenario probabilities sum to 100%?
• Are the 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts logically connected?
• Is the stock selection backed by concrete rationale?
• Is the strategy-reviewer review included?
• Is the final judgment reflecting the review documented?
• Is the report saved to the correct path?