mardab96/tiktok-ads-claude-skills

Budget Scaling Planner

Use this skill when

A campaign or ad group looks healthy and someone wants more spend. This skill decides whether the account has earned a raise, sets the step size and spacing, writes the stop rules before any money moves, and records the rollback. It never executes a change.

Common requests:

• "This ad group hit target CPA. Can we double budget?"
• "What is a safe step size on TikTok?"
• "Plan the raise for the sale on the 15th."
• "Budget is capped every day by noon. What now?"
• "We scaled last week and CPA went up. Roll back or hold?"

Do not use this skill for these jobs:

• Choosing or changing a bid strategy: bid-strategy-check-tiktok-ads.
• Edits while learning is in progress: learning-phase-guard-tiktok-ads.
• CPA already up with no clear cause: cpa-spike-diagnosis-tiktok-ads.
• Shop profit under GMV Max: gmv-max-profit-check-tiktok-ads.
• Exhausted creative: creative-fatigue-detector-tiktok-ads.

Required input

Work from pasted exports and screenshots. Claude's TikTok for Business MCP connector is optional.

Required

• Daily export at ad group or campaign level with columns date, campaign, ad group, budget, spend, impressions, clicks, reported conversions, CPA.
• Target CPA and where it came from (margin, lead value, owner statement).
• Bid strategy label and learning status, screenshotted as labelled in your Ads Manager.
• Dated change log for the last 14 days.
• Events Manager diagnostics capture.
• Capacity statement from the owner: stock, fulfilment, sales or call handling, landing page limits.
• Conversion lag in days and attribution setting.

Optional

• Independent order or lead report for the same dates.
• Creative inventory with launch dates.
• Promo calendar with fixed dates.
• Budget type (daily or lifetime) at each level.

Export route: ad group table with date breakdown and the budget column visible. See ../tiktok-ads-shared/references/getting-your-data.md.

Before analysis

1. Confirm the budget type per level. TikTok's About Budget page (July 2026) says a live campaign or ad group cannot switch between daily and lifetime, and a campaign budget should not sit below its ad group budget.
2. Identify the entity to raise and the one metric that proves it is working, normally CPA on the primary event.
3. Read the current per-adjustment ceiling and spacing on TikTok's About Budget page. Record the figure and the date as [platform guidance]. T06 is the planned size in the register and stays at or under any ceiling TikTok shows.
4. Exclude days inside the conversion lag from every CPA you use.
5. Count mature conversions per window. T04 needs at least 10 per window to judge CPA movement.

Analysis workflow

1. Check the gates in order (see Decision rules): tracking clean (T10), learning cleared (T05), CPA at or under target on mature rows (T04 floor), strategy label confirmed, capacity confirmed. Any failed gate ends the plan with its verdict.
2. Read pacing. Compare spend to budget across mature days. An entity that does not spend its budget has a delivery constraint, so a bigger budget changes nothing; route to bid-strategy-check-tiktok-ads.
3. Set the baseline: mature CPA, results per day, and CPM for the window before the first step.
4. Draft the ladder. Step size follows T06: 20% per step after learning, one budget action per observation window. An observation window is at least the conversion lag and must hold at least 10 conversions to judge CPA. Compounding applies, so three steps from 100 give 120, 144, and 172.80.
5. Name the owner of each step and the date it may be applied. Put promo dates in the calendar so no step lands inside a spike window.
6. Write stop rules before the first step: T04 against the pre-step baseline, T10 pattern, learning re-entry, capacity breach, pacing failure.
7. Write the rollback per step: the exact prior budget, who restores it, and the trigger. State that restoring the budget does not promise the prior CPA returns.
8. If TikTok guidance suggests it for the label in use, consider adding a stabiliser. TikTok says Target Cost per Result can help control volatility while budget rises; confirm the strategy with bid-strategy-check-tiktok-ads first, since a strategy switch is its own edit.
9. Output the plan and the approval request.

Decision rules

Gates:

Gate	Pass condition	If failed	Verdict
Tracking	No T10 pattern, diagnostics clean	Stop; fix events first	hold
Learning	Past about 25 results or 7 days, status cleared on screen (T05)	Wait; route to guard	hold
Efficiency	Mature CPA at or under target with at least 10 conversions (T04 floor)	No raise	hold or needs_data
Strategy	Label confirmed by screenshot	Ask for it	needs_data
Capacity	Owner confirms stock, handling, page can carry more	Do not plan	hold
Independent check	Independent report agrees directionally (T07)	Explain gap first	needs_data

Step and stop rules:

Condition	Verdict	Next step
All gates pass, step window clear	approval_needed	Apply one step of 20% (T06) and open the next window
Step window CPA at least 30% above pre-step baseline, both windows at least 10 conversions (T04)	likely stop	Roll back to the prior budget, then diagnose
Step window has under 10 conversions	needs_data	Extend the window, apply no second step
T10 pattern appears after a step	hold	pixel-events-api-check-tiktok-ads, freeze ladder
Ad group re-enters learning (status on screen)	hold	learning-phase-guard-tiktok-ads, freeze ladder
Spend stays well under budget across mature days	possible bid constraint	bid-strategy-check-tiktok-ads, no budget raise
Planned step above the ceiling TikTok shows	hold	Reduce to the ceiling and extend the ladder
Client asks to double in one action	hold	Offer staged steps; never skip windows
Campaign budget below ad group budget	hold	Correct the pair before any raise
Creative frequency or T01 signals worsening	possible	Add creative supply before the next step
Independent report diverges from reported conversions (T07)	needs_data	attribution-gap-check-tiktok-ads

TikTok's Maximum Results guidance is that a higher budget often raises cost per result after learning. Plan for CPA to move, and decide the acceptable ceiling before step one.

Output format

Fill this template.

## Scaling plan: [campaign / ad group], [currency], [timezone]
Strategy label: [as labelled] | Learning: [status] | Lag: [days] | Target CPA: [value, source]
TikTok ceiling read: [figure, page, date] | T06 step used: [20%]

### Gate check
| Gate | Evidence | Pass or fail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|

### Baseline (mature window, [dates])
Spend/day: [..] | Conversions: [..] | CPA: [..] | CPM: [..] | Budget used: [..]

### Ladder
| Step | Earliest date | Budget from | Budget to | Observe until | Stop rule | Rollback value | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

### Findings
| Finding | Evidence | Verdict | Severity | Confidence | Business impact | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

### Stop and rollback rules
[each rule, its trigger, and the exact restore action]

### Data gaps
[missing diagnostics, capacity, independent report, and the verdict each would firm up]

Practical example

Illustrative numbers only. Maximum Results ad group, daily budget 100 USD, target CPA 40 USD, lag 7 days. Mature 14 day window: 52 reported conversions, CPA 38 USD, budget fully spent on most days. Learning status cleared on screen. Events diagnostics clean. Owner confirms stock and handling can carry roughly double volume. Independent orders sit within a few percent of reported.

Gates all pass, so the plan is approval_needed. Client asks to double to 200 USD at once. That is hold for a single action; stage it instead.

Step	Budget from	Budget to	Observe
1	100.00	120.00	7 days, at least 10 conversions
2	120.00	144.00	7 days, at least 10 conversions
3	144.00	172.80	7 days, at least 10 conversions

Stop rule: CPA in an observation window at or above 30% over the 38 USD baseline, which is 49.40 USD, rolls the budget back to the prior step (T04). Any T10 pattern or a learning re-entry freezes the ladder. Rollback for step 2 restores 120.00. If a step window shows only 7 conversions, the answer is needs_data and the window extends before step 3.

Common failure modes

• Applying step 2 before the first window closes and holds enough conversions.
• Scaling on a window that still sits inside the conversion lag.
• Raising budget on an entity that does not spend its current one. Delivery is constrained, so look at the bid.
• Raising budget and bid together, then having no clean read.
• Scaling through a sale or holiday spike and reading the spike as the effect.
• Putting a campaign budget below its ad group budget.
• Trusting in-platform CPA when the independent report disagrees.
• Scaling a Smart+ campaign without reading its own run guidance, which carries separate limits.
• Treating rollback as a guarantee. Restoring the budget does not return the prior audience pool or CPA.
• Letting creative supply lag the budget until frequency climbs.

Route to next

Timing against learning: learning-phase-guard-tiktok-ads. Strategy mismatch: bid-strategy-check-tiktok-ads. Event doubts: pixel-events-api-check-tiktok-ads. CPA rising: cpa-spike-diagnosis-tiktok-ads. Creative: creative-fatigue-detector-tiktok-ads, winning-ad-remix-tiktok-ads. Automated campaign: smart-plus-audit-tiktok-ads. Client update: weekly-client-report-tiktok-ads.

Guardrails

• Do not make a live account, budget, bid, placement, tracking, Shop, page, or creative change.
• Do not plan a raise while any gate is failed or unverified.
• Do not stage more than one budget action per observation window.
• Do not exceed the per-adjustment ceiling shown on TikTok's budget page.
• Do not start a stop rule clock inside the conversion lag.
• Do not promise that CPA, volume, or return will hold at a higher budget.
• Do not present platform-reported conversions or GMV as profit without the supplied cost stack.
• Do not hide missing dates, lag, attribution settings, or conversion definitions.
• Do not claim a result before a controlled measurement exists.